A previous review of studies done by researchers at Umea University in Sweden and Zhangzhou in China on the transmissibility of the coronavirus shows that the coronavirus is more contagious than the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated.
Transmissibility is expressed as a reproduction number, which is a means of indicating how contagious an infectious disease is. In other words, as a virus spreads from person to person, it reproduces. The reproduction number represents the average number of people who catch the virus from a single contagious person. So, a higher reproduction number means a higher risk of spreading an infectious disease.
The researchers reviewed several scientific studies on the novel coronavirus (COVD-19) that estimated the growth rate based on the cases in China, as well as statistical and mathematical methods.
According to Joacim Rocklov, professor of sustainable health at Umea University and one of the authors of the study published in the Journal of Travel Medicine says, “Our review shows that the coronavirus is at least as transmissible as the SARS virus. And that says a great deal about the seriousness of the situation.”
The WHO estimated that COVD-19 had a reproduction number of 1.4 – 2.5. However, when reviewing the studies, the researchers found that the reproduction number was an average of 2.79, which is significantly higher than the WHO’s estimates.
Rocklov continues, “When looking at the development of the corona epidemic, reality seems to correspond well to or even exceed the highest epidemic growth in our calculations. Despite all intervention and control activities, the coronavirus has already spread to a significantly higher extent than SARS did.”