A new study estimates that HIV infections could increase an average of 10% in 18 U.S. states if CDC funding is interrupted or ended.
In the study, published in Clinical Infectious Diseases, researchers at Johns Hopkins University used a computer model to quantify the effect of funding cuts for HIV testing. The simulation model examined HIV infections across 18 states, with populations representing different groups of age, race and sex. The model estimates how frequently populations are being tested and how many of those tests are being done using CDC funding.
“Looking across the 18 states in total, you would have 12,751 more infections over the next five years,” said study lead researcher Todd T. Fojo, M.D., M.H.S., associate professor of medicine at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. “That’s 10% more infections than you would have if CDC-funded tests continue at their current pace.”
Fojo says that the number varies widely across states.
“The biggest driver is how much testing is already going on in the state and how much testing is done through CDC funding,” Fojo explained. “In general, if you look at states that have more of a rural HIV epidemic, those states tend to be more impacted when you take away funding for HIV testing.”
For example, in Washington state, the model predicts that the number of infections increases by 2.7% without CDC-funded tests, but in Louisiana, infections would increase by almost 30%. We know that CDC-funded tests are diagnosing more infections in Louisiana than in Washington state, so the model’s prediction makes sense.
The next steps in this research are to get a more comprehensive idea of what loss of CDC funding for other prevention activities may look like, and what would be the effect of those cuts on HIV infections in the United States.
“The United States has made tremendous progress over the years, with fewer people getting infected and better treatments for those who are infected. To enter a world where that suddenly reverses would be a big deal,” said Fojo.
Data from Johns Hopkins University