Last week the Chinese province of Hubei, where the coronavirus (COVID-19) was first found, reported almost zero COVID cases after a strict 60-day lockdown. The local authorities lifted the travel ban, allowing residents to come in and out of the province. Scientists were concerned that by easing the restrictions, it could lead to a resurgence of the disease. Fortunately, however, the early analysis indicates that there is no increase in the number of COVID-19 cases.
Since the rest of the world is behind China in this pandemic, it’s important to understand how China was able to reduce its COVID-19 cases to almost zero. Most businesses and schools in the United States and Europe are closed and some areas have restricted travel and asked citizens to stay at home and practicing social distancing.
China is now extensively testing its population and conducting contact tracing for any new positive tests. They will also maintain some of their social distancing policies to try to stave off a second wave of the virus. The borders to non-citizens remain closed and residents returning to the country will be quarantined for two weeks. In the capital, Wuhan, travel is still a bit restricted. Residents still need to be tested for the virus before leaving and entering the city. However, businesses and factories are starting to reopen, while schools and daycares remain closed.
By comparison, the United States and most European countries have been slow to enforce a lockdown of business and society. These countries have implemented social distancing policies, but they’re largely unenforced and even while “locked down,” residents can travel around the country at will.
Scientists wonder if China lifting its restrictions could lead to a pandemic resurgence. A team of researchers from the United Kingdom (UK) modeled whether easing travel restrictions in the six most affected provinces led to an increase in new infections. In these provinces, the restrictions led to almost zero COVID-19 cases. When the restrictions were lifted, very few new cases were reported.
Andrew Tatem, an emerging-disease researcher from the University of Southampton in the UK, says, “So far, so good. We’re at the ‘wait and see’ stage. How the graphs look as movement levels keep rising back towards normality will be very interesting.”