By the late 2030’s production of drones and autonomous robots is expected to explode by 10x for commercial drones and 100x for humanoid and quadruped robots. This will likely have global supply chain ramifications, with researchers recently identifying specific raw materials that will be at risk.
To identify potential supply chain issues, researchers in a new study estimated the volume of 18 raw materials that would be needed to build either 1 million or 10 million units of drones or robots per year. Then, they compared these estimates to the 2024 demand for raw materials in the U.S. and globally.
In both the 1 million and 10 million scenarios, the biggest risk for a supply chain shortage was for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr), a rare earth material used in permanent magnets, which is an essential component of most drone and robot motors.
Larger humanoid robots, which require larger motors, pose a particularly high demand for NdPr—the team estimated that producing 1 million large robots per year could increase demand by 20% over what the U.S. used in 2024.
The researchers also predicted that carbon fibers and magnesium, used for building lightweight structural frames, could become an issue. However, aluminum is available as a cheaper and more abundant alternative, so the challenge for these materials would only arise in the case of significant high-end demand.
To proactively prepare and build resilient supply chains for the future, the researchers recommend three strategies that could be implemented now:
- drone and robotics manufacturers should integrate their supply chains with existing industries that rely on the same materials,
- developers should design robots and drones so their materials can more easily be recovered, recycled and reused when the machines reach end of life,
- developers need to facilitate conversations between people who work at different stages in technology development so they can create backup plans ahead of time.
Data from Cell Press