A new study has produced the first full estimate of food fraud's economic toll on the UK, putting the cost at between £400 million and £2 billion annually—making it one of the most expensive forms of economic crime in the country.
The research examined offenses including food substitution, false labeling and document fraud, in which products are deliberately misrepresented for financial gain. Rather than tallying isolated incidents, the researchers built their estimate by looking at entire criminal operations, capturing the broader ripple effects on the legitimate food industry.
The study data, published in the Journal of Economic Criminology, reveals that roughly three-quarters of total economic damage comes not from the fraud itself but from displacement—where legitimate products are edged out of the market by counterfeit or mislabeled alternatives.
While many consumers never realize they've been deceived, the researchers say the fallout is real: financial losses for honest businesses, eroded trust in food supply chains, and in the most serious cases, threats to public health—such as counterfeit spirits found to contain industrial chemicals.
“By measuring the full economic cost, we can better understand the scale of the problem and make stronger evidence-based decisions about where enforcement and prevention efforts should be focused,” said study author David Sheperd, senior lecturer in economic crime at the University of Portsmouth.
While food fraud remains comparatively rare in the UK compared with other forms of fraud—largely because of the layered checks built into the country's food supply chains—the researchers say now is not a time to be complacent.
“Continued investment in prevention and enforcement is essential if we are to maintain public confidence in the food we buy and protect businesses that play by the rules,” said study author Lisa Jack, accounting professor at the University of Portsmouth.
In fact, the study suggests stepping up enforcement could pay for itself many times over. Based on the cases analyzed, the researchers estimate that food fraud prosecutions could deliver a return on investment exceeding 400 percent—indicating that stronger enforcement could pay for itself while also reducing harm across the food system.
The findings provide policymakers with the first evidence-based estimate of the true cost of food fraud in the UK and offer a framework that can be refined as better data becomes available.
The researchers say they hope this will help governments and industry target resources more effectively and strengthen the resilience of food supply chains against organized criminal activity.